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So after playing through three houses a few runs I've been able to come to the conclusion that the plot of this game extremely aligns with how the events of the Tellius series(Ike's games) went. Along with Tellius there has also been Genealogy references as well which means this game, as already speculated by the community, is highly inspired by both games. In this post I will give my complete thoughts and theorize/predict what future plot points will be revealed to us through dlc and maybe even potentially a sequel game if possible.
SPOILER WARNINGS FOR THOSE WHO WISH TO PLAY AND HAVN'T!!!....you've been warned.
Starting out I'd like to say that I think that this game overall is directly mirroring the Tellius games with its plot. Since I know Tellius's lore in at least 98% in its entirety(the remaining that i don't know about is maybe exact dates about things and other significant little details that don't matter), I was able to quickly catch on and connect many similarities between the games. I am nowhere near an expert on Genealogy(FE4) since I barely even finished the gen 1 portion but I know enough to know the obvious similarities in terms of character references at the least. So with that I shall start with my explanations and DEDUEcing the plot(get it? because Dedue is a character and i used his name like the actual word and.....ok I'll stop).
So for those who have played or wish to play and don't care for spoilers I shall give a small summary while comparing to the plot of the Tellius games. In the game of Path of radiance(Ike's game) Ike starts off living as a mercenary with his dad and eventually ends up having to save a royal who is being pursued in which right after that is enrolled to stick with and help the royal. This is also exactly how three houses starts off. Byleth and his Dad are traveling mercenaries and are approached by royals in danger and being pursued by enemies in which they save and help and right after are asked to accompany them for the rest of the game. Jeralt, who is the dad of byleth, shares the same background as Greil, Ike's dad, who was a famed Knight who was basically god tier in his prime time but left it suddenly because of some mysterious reasoning. Byleth shares the characteristic with Ike being more so emotionless(although with Byleth it's more extreme) as well as a quiet, good listener. byleth, like Ike but i'm sure this is probably more so common with most fire emblem units with dads, throughout the game is looked at as a shadow of Jeralt in terms of his swordsmanship. Jeralt also shares the same color scheme in terms of design with Greil so i feel like already in the beginning of the game alone they are hinting hard that this game will definitely share plot points with the Tellius series.
Now let's look at the map designs of both Fodlan's(FE3H's region) and Tellius's.
Out of all the other regional maps of the other fire emblem maps these share the closest in terms of design and lore. These are the only fire emblem regional maps that are color coded unless somebody can tell me I'm wrong. Also how they are structured are quite similar. In terms of the lore comparisons look at Begnion and the Adrestian Empire. Both of these nations have the biggest amount of land and both hold the Empress/Emperor. In Tellius they have Empress Sanaki of Begnion and for Fodlan They have Empress Edelgard of the Adrestian Empire. In Tellius the Empress religiously practiced and praised the goddess as well as was ignorant of the real truth of matters behind the scenes, which ended up causing and continuing a lot of conflicts overtime. In Fodlan they seemed to have split this ideology between the church and the Adrestian empire, giving to Edelgard the trope of holding ignorance and being manipulated into events causing the continuation of conflicts that shouldn't happen, while the church of Seiros blindly follows the teachings of things that aren't what the real goddess wanted.
Now for Dimitri as well as the Holy Kingdom of Faerghus, his backstory plays out very similarly to that of Elincia and the tragedy of Crimea. Crimea was invaded by Daein and Ashnard, who is currently the king of Daein, killed the king of Crimea. In Fodlan Faerghus was invaded by the region known as Duscar who are blamed for the killing of king of Faerghus. How this eventually lines up is that Dimitri overhears the Flame Emperor(who is actually Edelgard) speaking with someone indicating that she was involved in the tragedy of Duscar. Overhearing, Dimitri dedicates himself upon taking revenge against Edelgard. Now as to how is Edelgard also connected to the similar stance of Crimea is that Edelgard's motives is the same Ashnard's. Both Ashnard and Edelgard share the same ideal that those who lead shouldn't be passed down by nobility but to those who are capable, those with actual individual talent and power. So as to why Dimitri is after Edelgard is the similar case to the conflict between Elincia and Ashnard. Edelgard also being the Flame emperor is a reference to Arvis, so I assume whatever his goals and motives also are infused with Edelgard in some form of fashion.(sorry I don't completely know FE4) Also to note that on the Grondor field fight after the time-skip the Adrestian Empire start off the fight with the Mages raining fireballs so that definitely signals Arvis in my opinion. Also both Faerghus and Crimea share the same problems of people rebelling due to lack of proper ruling and Dimitri and Elincia both share the regrets of having to kill their own civilians.
Now where I'm really stuck at is Claude. Where does he fit in this Tellius equation? Funny thing is before Three Houses came out people were saying Edelgard was like Micaiah but in actuality it seems like to me that it's actually Claude who fits Micaiah. Claude's character in Fodlan represents an outsider who only wishes to stop the fighting and make peace between his homeland, that is looked down upon and shamed, and Fodlan, which isolates and discriminates against Almyra(Claude's homeland). Claude discovers that he is actually of nobility within Fodlan along the Leicester Alliance territory but was raised in and looks at Almyra as his real home where he actually wants to rule there and not Fodlan. This is the same situation for Micaiah. Micaiah was born to be the Empress of Begnion but events lead her to Daein where she grew up and ended up loving. Almyra shares a trait with Daein that is known for invading everything and just a country of bad vibes. So after the events of Path of Radiance where Ike defeats Daein and it was basically taken over by Begnion, Micaiah in Radiant Dawn took it upon herself to try to change things for Daein and make everything better. At the end of Radiant Dawn Micaiah discovers that she was actually meant to be the empress of Begnion, but refuses to take it and instead goes to be the queen of Daein in hopes to work with Sanaki to unify the nations and clear the tension between them.
It doesn't stop there guys. An obvious comparison i haven't spoken of yet is the death knight and black knight. People are flaking on the death knight, including myself, with how he was handled saying that he is terrible and doesn't compare to the black knight at all with how bland and empty he feels. I feel like if I'm right about my future theories(which I'll get into)then the death knight might end up being a decent character after all. In path of radiance the black knight's role was purposely shrouded in mystery within its narrative only giving you more questions than answers about his true identity. Within the game Zelgius was actually in the game briefly, who was the actual black knight, but at the time it wasn't blatantly obvious and was hit or miss if ppl would catch if he was the black knight or not. In three houses they execute this a lot differently which is why a lot of people are dissatisfied with the death knight. In three houses they make it obvious who the death knight is right away instead of keeping that shroud of mystery the black knight had. Also not liking how even though everyone knows who it is, for the remainder of the game Jeritza's(who is the death knight) face is never shown again, making people believe that the death knight is supposed to maintain this mysterious vibe when in actuality i don't feel like is the case this go around. So in the case of the simialrities between the games currently just the whole death knight/black knight name comparison as well as both being fully armored people who just wants to fight is the only comparison i can give between the two but it's kinda obvious that death knight is indeed inspired by the black knight, even more so with the theories i have in place.
Now lastly the only thing left i can currently thing of in comparison is the conflict beyond the surface. After dealing with Edelgard, who resembles Ashanard, you still have more enemies to deal with which are "those who slither in the dark". Just like with radiant dawn upon the finale chapters you realize that the real enemy is actually the ones that lowkey actually needed to be dealt with the entire time. In the Tellius game's lore the very beginning started with Ashunera who eventually flooded the world crying after the laguz and beorc were fighting each other. After realizing what she had done she split herself into Yune and Ashera. Ashera fought Yune and Yune ended up sealed until the chaos of war should engulf the world again. In Radiant Dawn when yune is revived she bestows Ike her power to once again fight against Ashera who wishes to destroy humanity and start anew. Now in Fodlan You have Sothis, who calls herself the beginning and is revealed to be the god who started it all in the distant past. After the fight between the Nebateans(Rhea's race and one of Sothis's children) and Agarthians(humans who are agaisnt the goddess Sothis and her children), Sothis fixes up the world and goes into a slumber. A guy called Nemesis who is basically with the Agarthians is gifted with the goddess's power and ends up slaughtering the Nebateans except for Rhea, who ends up killing him but at the end of one of the routes in three houses Nemesis's seal is broken and he returns to cause chaos once again. So to connect that for you, Sothis basically mirrors Ashunera. Sothis's split is referring to Rhea and Nemesis, who clash like Yune and Ashera did. Nemesis, who was supposed to be dead, was instead sealed from what the game shows like Yune was and both were referred as dark gods. Rhea's ideals of passing judgment on those who oppose her mirror Ashera's trait and people within tellius blindly praised Ashera the same as they do Rhea. Byleth is bestowed the goddess's power like both Micaiah and Ike were.
As a bonus in terms of the characters Lord Arundel/Thales is basically Lekain, who advised empress sanaki but they actually disliked each other and wanted to get rid of each other. Solon is obviously Izuka who is a weird ugly old man dark researcher dude who does terrible experiments on people. Faerghus has a fortress that is named after Micaiah's nickname "the Silver Maiden." So that ends all the similarities i caught, which basically is about the entirety of three house's plot. Next I have theories for the future of three houses.
Three houses predictions
Just like with path of radiance the game ends on a note that still leaves many questions. So I have my predictions about what might go down in the future dlc and possibly a sequel game. So when I discussed the death knight I had to leave off on a low note because of how little they did with him on the initial release of three houses. Some people say that there was no reason Jeritza even needed to be a character within the monastery because he added nothing to the story with that alias, however, i disagree. For what he is currently in the story his purpose as Jeritza was very little as shown so far but his objectives and his presence alone already tells a whole lot of what he is. Jeritza infiltrated the monestary to steal Flayn's blood(who is actually Saint Cethlenne, one of the children of the goddess Sothis) meaning he is definately one of those who slither in the dark. Jeritza's hair color and mentioning of Mercedes basically already makes it clear that he is in relation to her. Mercedes explains that her mother married into an imperial house and once the mother bore a crest child, mercedes and the mother were discarded.This explains how Jeritza is a part of the adrestian empire and mercedes is not. Mercedes reveals that her brother's name is Emile so Jeritza had to make up that alias name so where does that name come from. I would often confuse Geralt and Jeritza a lot and then finally it hit me why.
In the Tellius games the black knight/Zelgius idolized Greil and always strived to beat him one day. Greil was his mentor while they both were in knighthood. my prediction is that Jeritza's name was inspired based off of Geralt's name and those two have some type of backstory together. Also because the black knight was supposed to be dead but really wasn't in radiant dawn, the death knight isn't actually dead after the battle before reaching Edelgard, which to me would make sense because the death knight's level was way higher than majority of other units in the game, even Edelgard's. The death knight will reveal himself to have a bigger role than initially thought and will serve under somebody who will probably bedazzle everyone and claim they set up all the events that led up to this point.
We might see either within the future dlc or in a sequel game another war between the Nebateans and Agarthians, where we find more survivors of the tragedy of Zanado and more big heads within the agarthians since at the end of the game the problem with them still never was completely settled. This would be like the full scale war between the laguz and beorc. Although this probably was already reinacted in the game in a way but it would be cool to see.
We might fight an actual God like Ashera in the dark rhelm of Zahras, that was breifly mentioned by Solon.
Sothis might recover herself within byleth and be able to reveal herself to others and possibly share her power with some other important figures? I kinda don't think this is likely but in radiant dawn Yune bestowed her power directly to Ike, Micaiah, and Sothe then eventually blessed your whole group's weapons. So something like that could be possible.
In conclusion that's all i have to say on my thoughts of three houses. Do you agree with my alignment? Am i missing similarities of plot points/characters that could have been inspired from FE4?
Edit: So I've learned some more things about Arvis and the antagonists of FE4. Edelgard definately shares a trope with arvis where she, like him, wants to reshape the world and feels the only way she can is by teaming up with the actual baddies who also seem to resemble "those who slither in the dark".
The Duscar people being falsely blamed for the assassination of the king of Faerghus is a comparison to the Serenes massacre in Tellius where the herons were falsely blamed for killing the previous apostle.
Because of this comparison I feel it might be possible that the Agarthians actually don't mirror the final group in radiant dawn. Within the dlc we might actually be introduced to possibly new enemies from Zahras.
In the final cutscene of the blue lions it ends just like with Path of Radiance's final cutscene when ike and elincia walk out a door into the light together just like with Byleth and Dimitri so I even moreso believe Dimitri's story is based off Elincia's. Edelgard as well being the final boss of his route along with altering her form to a monsterous state is also referance to Ashnard in the final battle of Path of Radiance.
Thales shares ressemblence to the final boss of tharcia, Veld. When Thales is about to die he attempts to destroy everyone while saying "he'll take them all with him."
Blue Lion route=Path of radiance Lord: Dimitri(Elincia/Leif)
Golden Deer route=Radiant Dawn Lord: Claude(Micaiah/Lewyn)
Black Eagles= Geneology of the Holy War/Tharcia Lord: Edelgard(Arvis/Ashnard)
The secret route being shorter also could be referenced to the shorter game of Tharcia
Adding onto my Jeritza/Death knight predictions, I've thought even further into his actions and how they relate to the black knight. just like in PoR where Zelgius was only shown briefly, so was Jeritza, making them seem like characters of no importance at first. Both of them are responcible for the death of the protag's fathers. In PoR the black knight kills an innocent person and kidnaps an important figure for their leniage to be experimented on. The Death Knight kidnaps Flayn for this same reason and I suspect that he was the one who took and killed the real Monica. So for everything shown about Jeritza/Death Knight so far lines up perfectly with the black knight's accomplishments in PoR.
I speculate Rhea to share a role similar to Sephiran where the he was also imprisoned. I feel Jeritza will break Rhea out and either join your side or continue to fight against you but for the agarthians in a 1v1 since he's mainly interested in Byleth.
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